不确定性带来机遇

You may remember the movie series, Men in Black. In MIB 3 there is a pleasant space alien named Griffin who has the talent of seeing the future, but he goes one step further by seeing all possibilities of futures outcomes! 他低声说:“这么多的可能性!“有点像我们现在的处境.

Will the rise in interest rates squash our strong economy, 还是高通胀会先于美联储这么做? 我们会有一个软着陆” and avoid a Recession, or will Russia nuke Ukraine and turn everything topsy-turvy? 然后是中国! 还有埃隆·马斯克! 如此多的可能性!

任何领导都知道, 你尽最大努力去发现事实, 分析你的选择，然后做出决定, knowing full well that your course of action may work out well or not so well. But you know that inaction through indecision is worse than taking an imperfect action, 因为至少你在前进. You can’t steer a boat that is dead in the water. At least if you are moving, you can change directions when you see the need. So, to drop down to simple stuff like commercial real estate in San Antonio, let’s just consider the facts as best we can and keep moving forward.

I would suggest that the Financial Crisis of 2008 spawned the New Normal of low inflation, 低利率, 最终在2018年实现超低失业率. 的 Pandemic shattered our sense of Normal and now we are grappling with the Next Normal. 的re are so many possibilities on how THIS one will play out. 战争, 通货膨胀, 利率, 政治, 供应链中断, 婴儿潮一代退休, 是否在家工作, trillions of dollars on the side lines looking for reasonable investments, 气候变化, 中国对. 台湾，中国vs. Covid, 3万亿美元的加密货币. 等.等. 如此多的可能性! But where there is uncertainty, 所以也有机会!

那么，让我们回到我们所知道的. 在CBD的办公室实际上是相当强大的. Weston took the new Frost Tower off of the market because they couldn’t get a really, 价格真的很高, 所以他们会再融资并持有它. 明智的举动. Jefferson Bank’s new building is getting close to fully leased, 珍珠酒店的牛堡大楼只有8个,700 SF left to lease and even the Soto (old Cavender Cadillac site) has gotten near 50% leased, 在一个非常缓慢的开始之后. 超过500,000 SF has been added to inventory including sub-lease space, REOC的Kim Gatley说. 在远郊, Medical 办公室 is booming as health care groups expand, relocate and catch up from the two-year pause due to Covid.

“在家工作”vs“在家工作”，目前尚无定论. 回到办公室. One business owner told me that one section of her business thrives on personal interaction and coordination. 的y locked down for two weeks in 2020, and then all went back to the office. 的y couldn’t function unless they were in the office together. 然而, 她公司的另一个部门, which is heavily oriented to analyze and compute data, had their productivity soar while working from home.

Some employers, like the insurance companies in S.A., are struggling to get workers to return to the office. 在纽约，J.P. Morgan Chase said a year ago for their employees to get back to the office to work, but recently they have backed off as they find that they are having to compete more vigorously to keep and hire employees. Air BNB employees are now allowed to live and work from anywhere.

也许这就是大辞职的秘诀? 的 《365bet》 reports that Austin has the highest percentage of office workers having actually returned to their offices, at 60%; Houston is at 51% and Dallas at a 49% return rate.  WFH vs. 办公室困境似乎尚未得到解决.

Industrial is on fire, with more square footage coming to market. 都市区有10个.800万平方英尺在建, 哪个是库存的8%, an enormous increase for a short period; 1% to 2% is typical. Example: 54 acres at Wurzbach Parkway / West Avenue / Interpark Drive sold to Stream Realty for development of a 650,000平方英尺工业园区. This was expected to be a retail tract (Walmart had it under contract once), 但现在它将成为一个办公服务中心, 哪个通常不被认为是更高的用途. For the past 18 months industrial demand has outpaced supply, according to 奈的合作伙伴这种情况自2013年以来就没有发生过. In the first quarter, 4-million SF of new construction was delivered with another 8.5-million under construction and another 5-million proposed. 有史以来最大的规格开发项目, 640,000 SF, has been started at 410 and IH-10 East by Oakmont Industrial Group.   But this includes the big projects of Navistar at 900,000 SF, 以及爱信500指数,位于IH-10 East附近的Cibolo工厂，占地1000平方英尺. Amazon has started facilities at I-35 NE near Crosswinds Drive, I-35 south of Loop 410, Hwy. 90 at Loop 1604, and they recently bought a 64-acre tract on Loop 1604 at Lockhill-Selma. Amazon is probably nearing build-out on what they will be doing, and will not continue expansion at this torrid pace, 甚至可能缩小一些规模.

Industrial expansion is strong throughout all of Texas. 奥斯汀以20人排名全国第一.库存增长6%. I expect the huge Tesla plant on State 130 east of Bergstrom contributes to this. 休斯顿以11人排名第三.8%的增长. DFW有11个.5% so this means 50-million SF of additional of industrial construction since the Metroplex is already so large.

Fun Fact: City of San Antonio collects about $759-million a year from property taxes; not their only source, 但这是迄今为止最大的. 你今年的税单增加了多少? 20% is a common answer; I don’t have a city-wide summary, but let’s just go with that number. If the City takes in an additional 20% in tax revenues due to property tax increases, then this adds up to abut $150-million in additional money the City will have available to spend. I would really like to know what their plans are for this “windfall” as it is a very major pay raise. It certainly exceeds inflation, even if that averages 7% for the year. And the school districts and hospital districts also get this additional revenue. 好奇的人想知道.